Investment Club Sep 2010

Just a quick note to record the investment club decisions this month.  Four stocks were presented - that might be a first for the club.  Overall the portfolio is in better shape than it has been in quite awhile.  We still need less technology and more mid and small cap stocks.  We'd also like to increase the estimated sales for the overall portfolio.

We decided to:
Sell $2,500 worth of Fiserv (FISV).  Reasoning:  it is a technology stock and our largest holding, almost too large and it gives us enough cash to buy into a new position in one of the stocks presented tonight.

Buy $3,100 worth of Quality Systems (QSII).  This stocks was the best of the four presented and it meets several of the portfolio needs.  It's a quality stock (78.1) with a project return (PAR) of 16.7 which is greater than our current portfolio PAR and is expected to growth at 20%, well above portfolio average growth of 9.4%.  This small cap stock is in the health care sector.

The other stocks presented were Synutra (SYUT) - a food processing company, Atheros Communication (ATHR) - a communications company, RECN - a staffing company.

Investment Club - July 2010

Only four members in attendance at this meeting - attendance always goes down in the summer. We did not present any new stocks at this meeting.  We didn't have an updated spreadsheet so our portfolio review was just cursory.  Regardless I think we made good decisions.

Number of Stocks:  14 (goal is 16 plus or minus 4)

Company Size:  We assume this is still the same as last month.  Large, Mid and Small are all out of tolerance.  Our intent was to lower large cap and increase small or mid cap.
Sectors:  We assumed this is still the same as last month.  All in tolerance except for Technology.  We decided that whatever we did we would try to lower our exposure in Technology and at a minimum we would not increase it.
Individual Stock Percentage:  Neutral Tandem (TNDM) is  too low as a percentage of our portfolio.  Our methodology says that we need to sell or add more. 
Percent Annual Return: in the sweet spot but on the low side
Quality: Good
Growth: in tolerance but on the low side

Individual Stocks analysis:  Two stocks are of concern.
Neutral Tandem (TNDM) due to being a small percentage of the portfolio and the news on Apollo (APOL)is not good.  Irene sent out before the meeting some analyst notes about Apollo.  Most telling was the comment by one analyst that an investor should "forget about it".  Also, the PAR for Apollo is 28 which is well above the sweet spot and just too good to be true.


Our intent this month is to maintain PAR and Growth while improving Mid and Small company size while addressing the stock that is a small portion of the portfolio.

DECISION:  Sell all of Apollo based upon the negative news and our poor expectation about the future of the company given the government take over of college funding (for profits will most likely be squeezed by the government).  With the proceeds from the sale and our available cash we voted to purchase $3,000 worth of US Ecology (ECOL) and about $1800 of Neutral Tandem (TNDM).  Both stocks are small cap and have PAR's in the sweet spot.  The purchase of additional TNDM also raises its percentage of the portfolio into the acceptable range.

Gila Wilderness Backpack Trip - Day 5

May 27, 2010 – 4 miles hiked

Our final day in the back country.  We returned to the trail head via the Little Bear Canyon Trail (729). After an initial up hill section from the river the trail was generally down hill with nothing remarkable.  Even walking slowly we were at the cars by 10 am after which we went to Doc’s Trading Post for lunch and soda while waiting for the 1 pm Gila Cliff Dwelling guided tour.  The tour is well worth the wait and the story of the cliff dwelling people is amazing. Included are pictures of the cliff dwellings from a distance, up close, and looking outward.

Gila Wilderness Backpack Trip - Day 4

May 26, 2010 – 4 miles hiked

Today was an easy day as we only planned to hike to Jordan Hot Springs along the Middle Fork Trail (157) which is only 2 miles one way from our campsite. There are a total of 15 waters crossings (one way) so we decided to wait until 10 am to start the trip. The hot spring is absolutely fantastic and relaxing. The description of its location from the guide book made it sound as though we would have to search for the hot springs. Nothing could be further from the truth. Only a blind man with a horrible sense of direction could have missed the “hot tubs” that have been created out of the hot spring. We spent over an hour soaking up the 90+ degree water. The temperature was just right for prolonged soaking. When we arrived there was on guy, totally naked, in the hot spring. Ed told him we had a lady with us and all he did was look at Ed and said nothing. We all got in (with shorts or bathing suits) and shortly thereafter two ladies who had ridden up on horse back joined us. There were 8 in the “hot tub” with room for 8 more.

Gila Wilderness Backpack Trip - Day 3

May 25, 2010 – 12 miles hiked 

It was 28 degrees when we got up but it warmed up quickly and pretty soon we were all sweating after hitting the trail. Shortly after starting we hit Prior Creek Trail (156) and headed east. The terrain was mainly flat with some minor ups and downs so we made very good time. We had lunch at the junction of Prior Creek Trail (156) and Big Bear Canyon Trail (28) and having done most of the planned mileage for the day we decided to change our goal and get all the way to the Middle Fork River. Shortly before hitting Little Bear Canyon Trail (729) we ran into some Adventure Scouts (4 scouts and 3 adult leaders) that were using a GPS for guidance and hiking up hill looking for the Middle Fork. Much to their dismay, when we showed them the map they realized they had missed a turn and had hiked up hill an extra mile. Our lesson – a GPS is good at telling you where you are but you need a map to determine if you are heading in the right direction. We continued the generally down hill trail until we headed north on Little Bear Canyon Trail (729). At the junction of the trail and the Middle Fork River there were numerous, flat, spacious camp sites and no one there so we picked the best one.

Gila Wilderness Backpack Trip - Day 2

May 24, 2010 – 9.5 miles hiked

We woke up this morning to 35 degree temperatures – really cold for walking in and out of water. None the less we got on the trail around 8am, all wearing shorts, long sleeve shirts, and fleece. There were 33 water crossings total today, all before 1pm. Unfortunately, before we completed the water crossings Lori's sandal came apart.  There is a picture of the duct tape repairs we had to make so she could continue the hike.  At 1pm we reached Hell’s Hole Trail (268) where we stopped, put on our boots (glad to get out of wet socks and sandals), and loaded up with water since we were not sure if there would be water at our camp for the night. Then we headed up hill for a 1000 foot assent. We blew right through Hell’s Hole with out even noticing it and took Lilly Park Trail (164) towards our goal for the night - Prior Cabin. We were walking along Prior Creek which had no water for the longest time and towards 5 pm we finally spotted water in the creek. We were all pretty beat by this time and wanted to camp with water so we choose a flat spot close to Prior Creek to set up camp. Again we cooled the wine in the creek but only drank one bottle. We learned the next day that Prior Creek continued to get larger and Prior Cabin was only about ¼ mile further up the trail where there was plenty of flat spots and a nice fire ring. Oh well… we enjoyed our spot none the less.

Gila Wilderness Backpack Trip - Day 1

Summary: This 35 mile loop hike is not overly strenuous but there are 85 thigh deep water crossings in swift moving water. The water crossings are not real difficult but care must be taken and 2 hiking poles (for extra stability) is recommended. Day and night time temperatures are just about perfect for hiking and sleeping and bugs are at a minimum.  Pictured at the left are Lori Fisher, Carl Fisher, John Gundry, Joe Gundry, and Ed Tucker.

May 23, 2010 – 6 miles hiked




Our loop hike started from the ranger station near the base of the Gila Cliff Dwellings on the West Fork Trail (151) which follows the West Fork of the Gila River. A volunteer told us that we could avoid two river crossings by taking a social trail and we did so. The trail was difficult and probably not worth the effort as we ended up doing 22 river crossings before the day was done so 2 more would not have been a big deal. The river crossings were more challenging than we had envisioned. Of course, the ranger had told me there were numerous crossings, up to mid-thigh depth. So… in my mind that meant that most of the crossings were going to be rock hopping or ankle depth and there would be a few deep crossings. It was actually the opposite. We hiked most of the first day and ½ of the second day in our water shoes – most of which were not appropriate or sturdy enough. One plus while walking along a river is little to no elevation change. We camped the first night along the river somewhat short of the half way point. There were several nice camp sites and Joe was able to have a fire because we pitched our 3 tents far enough away to not have sparks from the fire burn holes in them (experience taught us this lesson). We are in the habit of carrying wine on our trips (in bladders designed for that purpose). We bring one bottle per night so on this trip we had four bottles. The first bottle we chilled in the river to a perfect temperature. The wine would have gone well with Gouda cheese, however, I left the cheese, apples, jerky, a sub sandwich and fresh veggies in the hotel room refrigerator! Damn. We didn’t stop at one bottle and finished a second one (we reasoned it was less weight to carry the next day!)

Am I Cheap?

Just wondering - Am I cheap, frugal, or very wise?

I got a renewal notice for my Runner's World magazine subscription which just expired.  The notice offered me a "special price" for $21.97 for 12 issues or $1.83 per issue.  The notice also indicated that I could get 18 issues for the same price if I renewed online.  So being FRUGAL I decided to go online to renew and to get the price per issue reduced to $1.22 for a total savings of almost $11.00.

So I go online, press subscribe (couldn't find a renew button) and what comes up is a new subscriber price of $24 for 24 months or only $1.00 per issue.  Now I'm kind of ticked off.  Why should a new subscriber get a better rate and an existing customer?  So what did I do?  Picked up the phone and called customer service.  The call was this quick.

CS rep:  How may I help you?
Carl: I want to renew my subscription but I don't want to pay more than a new subscriber would pay.
CS rep:  How much was the offer?
Carl:  $24 for 24 issues
CS rep:  OK, I can give you that rate.  How would you like to pay for it?
Carl:  Send me a bill please.
CS rep: OK.  Is there anything else I can help you with (they are trained to say that)?
Carl: No - Thank you.

So by making the call I saved $21.97.  Does all this effort make me cheap, frugal, or wise?

Investment Club - June 2010

Five members in attendance at this meeting.  Terry presented a new stock to the club, American Science Engineering (ASEI).  The company engages in the development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of X-ray inspection and other detection solutions primarily for homeland security markets in the US and internationally.

Number of Stocks:  14 (goal is 16 plus or minus 4)

Company Size:  Large, Mid and Small are all out of tolerance.  We need less large and more mid and small.
Sectors:  All in tolerance except for Technology.  We need less technology but are getting close to our goal of no more than 25% (now at 28.1%)
Individual Stock Percentage:  Two stocks Hornbeck (HOS) and Neutral Tandem (TNDM) are too low as a percentage of our portfolio.  Our methodology says that we need to sell or add more.  This is the first time since we've adopted this methodology we have TWO individual stocks out of tolerance.  Last month Sun Power (SPWRA) was too low and we decided to sell.
Percent Annual Return: in the sweet spot but on the low side
Quality: Good
Growth: in tolerance but on the low side

Individual Stocks analysis:  Two stocks are of concern.
Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) not only is too small a percentage of the portfolio but its PAR is just north of zero (was negative last month) and Neutral Tandem (TNDM) due to being a small percentage of the portfolio.


Our intent this month is to increase PAR and Growth while improving Mid and Small company size while addressing the stocks that are a small portion of the portfolio.

DECISION:  Sell all of Hornbeck (HOS).  The current long term outlook for the oil related stock is not positive and the club does not have enough information to determine if the market has over reacted to depress the price or if there is a fundamental long term down draft for the oil industry.  Removing HOS from the portfolio improved PAR if we use the funds to purchase a higher PAR stock.  The overall quality of the portfolio is improved as HOS quality is only 32 with 65 or higher being quality on this 1 to 100 scale.

Buy American Science Engineering (ASEI) with the proceeds from the sale of HOS and available cash.  ASEI has a PAR of 15, quality of 70.6, and a 16% growth rate improve all three of these factors.

Continue to hold Neutral Tandem (TNDM) although it is a small holding.  Our belief is that the price has been driven down unfairly by a recent lawsuit that has not been ruled in its favor.  TNDM is a well managed company so we plan to hold on and to add to the holding in the future.

Apollo (APOL) is on the hot seat for next month.  We don't like the fact that the government has taken of the college loan programs.  The government will most likely tighten down lending at the for-profit colleges like Apollo which will hurt profitability.  On-going lawsuits are another concern.

Marathon Thoughts

On May 16, 2010 I completed my first marathon, the Cellcom Green Bay marathon.  There were lots of spectators and all of them were well meaning, I'm sure.  There were a couple of things said several times as I ran by the just irritated the hell out of me and a couple of things that seemed appropriate.  Now since this was my first marathon my impressions may be totally off or wrong.

DON'T SAY:

"You are almost there."  To someone not running the full 26.2 miles it may seem appropriate to point out that there are only 3 more miles to go and "you are almost there".  However, when I heard it I wanted to stop and strangle the person.  I wasn't almost there - I still had 3 f...ing miles to go!

"It's easy."  Oh yeah?  Then why the hell aren't you out here doing it? 

OK TO SAY:

"Keep going."  That is what I was saying to myself so having someone else say it helped to validate my self talk.
"You can do it."  This countered my doubtful self talk that was saying, "What the hell were you thinking - you can't do this."
"Looking good."  Say this one even if we all know it's a lie.  I liked hearing it for some reason.  I'm sure I looked like I was going to pass out - especially those last 3 miles.

Cellcom Marathon 2010

Dave Elsen and Carl Fisher ready for the race to start. Here's my Marathon story.


The idea of running a marathon had its genesis about 30 years ago but laid dormant until last November 2009 when I was watching the last show of the season of the Biggest Loser where the final four contestants had to run a marathon.  I said to myself, "If they can do it, so can I."  And then in the next breath I said "But I'm sure my running partner, Melodie, won't want to do it (so I'm safe)."  The next day at our regular run I mentioned that I was thinking about doing the Cellcom Green Bay marathon next year and, much to my surprise, she said "Sounds good to me."  Damn!  Now I had to do it!


Fast forward to May 16, 2010 - race day.  After many months of training, running in cold, snowy, crappy weather it all came down to today.  I had been nursing a sore left leg since February and had taken a longer taper than my training schedule called for.  I was feeling pretty good.  Melodie and I did not meet up before the race so we didn't start together which wasn't all bad - she is a much better (read faster) runner than me so we would have only been together for a couple of miles anyway.  


I lined up at the start line with Dave Elsen and right next to us was my good friend and fellow wino, Linda Jeske.  The three of us ran the first 2 miles together at a pace faster than I wanted to go out but I enjoyed the company.  At two miles Dave wanted to pick up the pace so he went ahead.  We were running faster than Linda wanted but I kept encouraging her to keep up the pace.  At a water stop about mile 4 I got ahead of her and ran the next several miles without a partner.  At about mile 10 I caught up to Dave and we ran together until the half and full marathoners split at mile 11.  At this point I was feeling great and I was not psychologically crushed by turning away from the finish line to run 15 more miles.  Somewhere before the half way point I even thought to myself "I wonder how many miles I could do in a 24 hour period?"  Wow, was that optimist thinking!
 
The half way point was manned by Schneider National associates, where I used to work and where Melodie still works.  They advised me that Melodie was about 10 minutes ahead of me.  Also got a kiss and hug from a friend.  
Carl after just passing 20 miles

About mile 15 I began to run out of energy.  By now we were on the Fox River Trail, a familiar running venue so I was comfortable with my pacing - it was just slowing down.  Keeping me going was the knowledge that at mile 20 my wife was going to join me to run three miles.

After going through "The Wall" at mile 20 my wife, daughter, and husband were waiting for me.  It was an incredible energy boost for her to run with me.  I knew my per mile time was slipping but my main goal was to finish without walking - and to this point I hadn't even thought about walking.  I was focused on trying to come in with a time under 4 hours and 45 minutes.
The finish line - finally!
Mile 23, when my wife stopped running with me, was the first time I seriously considered walking.  Shortly after that point I went through a water station and came up on a lady with her husband who I had ran the Dick Lytie Half Marathon with in April.  There were walking so I started walking with them and encouraging them to start running again.  Thankfully they did and that was the last time I walked.  Mile 23 to Mile 26 were tough miles for me and I had to dig deep to keep going.  I called myself a few choice names and reviewed the reasons I was doing the marathon to keep myself motivated.

The lap through Lambeau Field is was just a blur to me and I was running on auto pilot, just putting one foot in front of the other one.  After coming out of Lambeau and making the final long stretch before turning the corner for the finish line it hit me that I was actually going to finish a full marathon.  I was filled with emotion, tears came to my eyes, and a huge smile plastered my face.  I even heard a bystander comment about my smile!

My wife, Lori, me, Buddy and Megan



My final time was 4 hours and 54 minutes a time that I'm very happy with.  I've been asked would I do it again.  The answer is YES.
Linda Jeske and me. Linda waited for 2 hours for me to finish.

Investment Club - May 2010

Investment Club YenoM had an excellent meeting on May 17, 2010 with six members in attendance.  Carl presented a new stock to the club, U. S. Ecology (ECOL).  The company is one of the older firms that recycles of hazardous material (radioactive, polychlorinated biphenyls, etc) and not-hazardous industrial waste.  It services both commercial and governmental entities.


Number of Stocks:  14 (goal is 16 plus or minus 4)
Company Size:  Large, Mid and Small are all out of tolerance.  We need less large and more mid and small.
Sectors:  All in tolerance except for Technology.  We need less technology
Individual Stock Percentage:  One stock, SunPower (SPWRA) is too low.  That means we need to sell or add more.  This is the first time since we've adopted this methodology that an individual stock is out of tolerance.
Percent Annual Return: in the sweet spot but on the low side
Quality: Good
Growth: in tolerance but on the low side

Individual Stocks analysis:  Two stocks are of concern.
Sun Power due to low position and a very low quality rating and Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) due to a negative PAR and slightly low quality rating.


Our intent this month was to increase PAR and Growth while improving Mid and Small company size.

DECISION:  Sell all of Sun Power (SPWRA) and use the funds plus available cash to purchase U. S. Ecology.  Reasoning:  Sun Power is not a quality company (based upon Manifest Investing) and the news seems to indicate that their product is not cutting edge.  Their growth rate is around 6% which seems low for a company of this nature.  U. S. Ecology's PAR is in the upper portion of the sweet spot, is a quality company with better growth prospects than Sun Power.  So these decisions had the impact of improving overall growth potential and replaces a stock that we had lost our confidence in.

Best Picture Award - Unforgiven

This movie was the 1992 Best Picture Academy Award winning movie.  My wife and I really enjoyed this movie.  It contains a lot of violence but the story is well told.  It contains Clint Eastwood, Gene Hackman, and Morgan Freeman.

The name of the movie comes from the fact that an incident that occurs in the beginning of the movie is never forgiven.

49 Best Picture movies seen.  Only 31 left to see.

Best Picture Award - No Country For Old Men

This movie was the 2007 Best Picture Academy Award winning movie.  I had high hopes that I would enjoy this movie because I had heard so much about it.  Well it really disappointed me.  It is full of violence and basically the plot goes nowhere.  I’d recommend that you skip watching this movie.

My guess is the name of the movie comes from the fact that a lot of people get killed in the move.

48 Best Picture movies seen.  Only 32 left to see.

Best Picture Award - Mrs. Miniver

This movie was the 1942 Best Picture Academy Award winning movie.  The setting was England during World War Two which is interesting since the movie was made during World War Two.  It is a story of war, of love, and of death.  Somewhat predictable but well done none-the-less.

Mrs. Miniver is the main character in the movie – thus the name.

47 Best Picture movies seen.  Only 33 left to see.